Even if the planned decline, it will be smooth. Credit: Doug McMillon-2011. Another month or two, the growth will be maintained by inertia, while decaying rapidly. It should be understood that such a prediction are only a first approximation. It works well for small changes in the market, but its accuracy is reduced when a significant change of trend. Nevertheless, it is often enough to know that the market is stable and prices range from -0.5% to +0.5%. Click gymnast for additional related pages. Or in front of the market is growing rapidly from 3% to 4% per month. This level of accuracy justifies even a rough prediction of the trend with the first approximation.
Many additional information is also a form of schedule index expectations. If at the current pace of market growth at 3% per month, this rate is reduced from 4%, then the next month rate of bark should be adjusted downwards. And if, on the contrary, the growth rate increased from 2%, then – in a big way. This is already anticipating prices to the second order accuracy, the mathematical means taking into account the second derivative. That's how you should use this index. Something laid in a similar algorithm for calculating the index of expectations at the time of its creation. Based on data for 2000-2002 was built the system curve fitting cost index, which allows to predict its trend. As a result, What this data array index of expectations more in line with not even the current price increase, as projected for the next month.